Fans and players
Win Probability Calculator
A model estimate of whether a chase gets there, with the method shown. Not a prediction.
The best guide to what this pitch is worth. Supplying it improves the estimate considerably.
Chase succeeds
49%
model estimate, not a prediction
Runs required
60
Balls remaining
48
Wickets in hand
6
Required rate
7.50
Expected further runs
60
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How this was worked out
- 1Resources remaining23.8 per cent, from the published resource table at 48 balls and 4 wickets down
- 2Expected further runs250 reference score x 23.8 per cent of resources = 60
- 3Surplus60 expected - 60 required = -0.5
- 4Estimatelogistic of surplus over a spread of 9.1
How the number is worked out
The formula
Expected further runs = reference score x (resources remaining / full innings resources)- resources remaining
- From the published Duckworth-Lewis resource table, which already encodes how much scoring capacity a side has left given balls and wickets.
- reference score
- The first innings total where known, because it is the best available guide to what the pitch is worth. A generic 250 is used otherwise.
- surplus
- Expected further runs minus the runs still required.
The estimate is a logistic function of the surplus, with a spread that widens as balls run out, because one over swings a short chase far more than a long one.
A worked example: sixty needed off eight overs
Chasing 250, a side needs 60 from 48 balls with six wickets in hand.
- 1Resources remaining48 balls with 4 down is 23.8 per cent of an innings
- 2Expected further runs250 x 23.8 per cent = 59.5
- 3Surplus59.5 expected against 60 required, so -0.5
- 4Estimatealmost exactly even, around 49 per cent
By this measure the chase is precisely at par. That is a defensible answer rather than an intuitive one, and it is why the method is shown rather than hidden.
Rules and edge cases
The situations that change the answer, and the ones most calculators get wrong.
This is an estimate, not a prediction
It knows nothing about who is batting, who is bowling, the conditions or the match situation beyond three numbers. It is a way of reading the shape of a chase, and it should never be presented as a forecast of the result.
Built on published data rather than a fitted model
Rather than invent a model and ask you to trust it, the estimate uses the published Duckworth-Lewis resource table, which already measures remaining scoring capacity. That means the working can be checked line by line, which a proprietary model would not allow.
Supplying the first innings score matters a great deal
Without it the estimate falls back on a generic 250, which is badly wrong on a low scoring pitch or a flat one. The first innings total is the single best guide to what a ground is worth on the day.
It will disagree with your instinct in the middle overs
The resource table is conservative about the lower order, so a side that looks comfortable to a watching eye can sit near even here. Where the two disagree, your knowledge of the batters is usually the better guide.
There is no match predictor here, and there will not be
Crickslab does not build toss predictors or match outcome predictors. Anything that reads as betting adjacent costs credibility with the boards and associations this platform serves, which is worth far more than the traffic.
Frequently asked questions
This one converts balls remaining and wickets in hand into a share of an innings' resources using the published Duckworth-Lewis table, scales the first innings score by that share to get expected further runs, and compares it against what is still required.
For clubs and commentators
Follow a chase with real numbers behind it
Crickslab publishes the chase ball by ball, with the required rate, the par comparison and wickets in hand, so everyone watching reads the same situation.
See match scoringLast reviewed 17 August 2026. Playing conditions change, so if your competition uses a different rule, its regulations take precedence over anything here.